Modelling the heat consumption in district heating systems using a grey-box approach

The heat consumption in a large geographical area is considered together with climate measurements on a single location in the area. The purpose is to identify a model linking the heat consumption to climate and calendar information. The process of building a model is split into a theoretical based identification of an overall model structure followed by data-based modelling, whereby the details of the model are identified. This approach is sometimes called grey-box modelling, but the specific approach used here does not require states to be specified. Overall, the paper demonstrates the power of the grey-box approach.