Typhoon Strength, Related Precipitation, and Sea Surface Temperatures in the Southeastern Part of the NEESPI domain
Abstract
Model simulations using CO2-induced sea surface temperature increases indicate that TC wind speeds and related daily precipitation may increase. We investigated changes in the TC-related rainfall distributions as a function of TC strength at landfall and impact of SST ahead of TCs on the TC strength for several preferred tropical cyclone regions. Our findings were that a warmer climate and (projected with it) SST increases over the tropical North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans will likely be accompanied by more frequent strong landfalling hurricanes over the U.S. and China coasts. The fraction of strong hurricanes that make landfall on these coasts is positively correlated with daily SSTs in the path of the TCs. But, there were no landfalling strong hurricanes at, or above Category 3 in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (strong to catastrophic hurricanes) when the SST was below the threshold of 28°C, which is likely a primary reason of their absence at the Russian Far East coast during the past fifty years. However, during the past 20 years there have already been strong landfalling typhoons north of Shanghai (with SST = 28.9°C) and several tropical storms that hit China north of 40°N and/or Russia with SST ahead of the storm tracks well above 28.5°C. With the ongoing warming (including the SST increases in the western part of the Northern Pacific by 0.8°C 100yr-1 during the typhoon season) these situations may become more frequent. Therefore, we focus on the southeastern edge of the NEESPI region (Russian Far East, northern China, Korea, and northern Japan) to assess the relationships that control the TC activity changes with the SST increase and to trace the above mentioned threshold shift northward during the typhoon season.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2006
- Bibcode:
- 2006AGUFMGC23A1326G
- Keywords:
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- 1225 Global change from geodesy (1222;
- 1622;
- 1630;
- 1641;
- 1645;
- 4556);
- 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets (1218;
- 1655);
- 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312;
- 4504);
- 3354 Precipitation (1854);
- 9355 Pacific Ocean