Pan-Arctic Temperatization: A Preliminary Study of Future Climate Impacts on Agriculture Opportunities in the Pan-Arctic Drainage System
Abstract
With increased population and predicted temperature increases in the next century between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius; questions have arisen about what effects global warming may have on water availability and food security and water availability. A preliminary investigation was conducted on changing agriculture opportunities in the pan-Arctic drainage system caused by global warming. Temperature and precipitation predictions from the HadleyCM3 model based on IPCC scenarios were used. Average growing degree days and precipitation were compared for the contemporary time period and end of the century. Based on only temperature requirements potential cropland area with enough growing degree days to support crop growth in the Pan-Arctic doubled by 2080. However, Soil physical and chemical properties greatly reduce potential crop growing area estimates especially in Western Canada. Water limits further constrain potential crop growth area estimates and could reduce areas under current cultivation. Although increased temperatures may increase potential crop growth and productivity in the Pan-Arctic, increasing water demands and drying conditions may actually lead to a decline in productivity in some areas.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2006
- Bibcode:
- 2006AGUFM.U33A0026D
- Keywords:
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- 0402 Agricultural systems;
- 1637 Regional climate change;
- 1807 Climate impacts;
- 1834 Human impacts