Assessment of the Relationship between Andean Ice Core Precipitation Indicators and Amazon River Discharge

Prior to the last 100 years, there is a significant lack of hydrologic knowledge for the Amazon Basin. A 100- year record of discharge from the city of Manaus, located at the confluence of the Solimoes and Negro rivers, is the most complete record for the basin. Inundated wetlands play a key role in carbon out-gassing to the atmosphere whereas discharge from the Amazon River contributes about 20% of the total freshwater flux delivered to the world's oceans. As discharge (Q) and inundation are directly related to precipitation, we are developing a method to extend our understanding of Q and inundation into the 19^{th} century. Using proxy data preserved in Andean glaciers and ice caps and recovered from ice cores, annually resolved histories of δ^{18)O and mass accumulation are available. The latter is a proxy for local precipitation amount whereas δ18O is influenced by continental scale processes (i.e., evaporation, convection) as well as by temperature and hence, by varying climate regimes. We have correlated the accumulation and δ18O records from Core 1 drilled on the Quelccaya ice-cap in the southern Andes of Peru with the Manaus discharge data. As ice core annual layers correspond to the thermal year (in Peru, July to June of the following year) and the discharge records are kept daily (January to December), we averaged 365 days of Q data seeking the optimal correlation for each start and end date. The best statistical relationship between δ18O and Q (r = -0.41, p = < 0.001) is attained when Q is averaged from March 16 to March 15 of the following year. We also correlated 23 years of ENSO events, which are linked to both Amazon River discharge and ice core δ18O (r = -0.60, p = < 0.001). These linear relationships are used to create Amazon discharge for the 20^{th} century and to extrapolate Q into the 19^{th} century. Previously developed relationships between Q and mainstem inundated area are then used to estimate inundated area along the main Amazon channel for the past 200 years. The ice core-derived estimate of inundated area for the past 100 years compares well with the previous and more straightforward estimates based on discharge and remote sensing data.