A factorial analysis of flooding due to storm surge in Barrow, Alaska

This presentation describes our work to improve the understanding of the broad range of factors affecting the occurrence of flooding in Barrow, Alaska, with an emphasis on interactions among these factors in a series of extreme events that have affected the community over the past 50 years. We have applied a numerical weather prediction model and a storm surge inundation model to the 21 case studies identified in National Weather Service data. Based on these models, we have developed a reduced form model which adequately describes this interaction. Specifically, we have found that when wind is forecast to be greater than 30 mph (13.4 ms-1 for at least 20 hours, this is the most accurate predictor of the possibility of damaging flood. We found that wind direction, fetch to the sea ice edge, and maximum wind speed were in contrast relatively small contributors to the likelihood of flooding.