The 13 14 December 2001 IMPROVE-2 Event. Part III: Simulated Microphysical Budgets and Sensitivity Studies.

This paper investigates the microphysical pathways and sensitivities within the Reisner-2 bulk microphysical parameterization (BMP) of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) for the Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE)-2 field experiment on 13 14 December 2001. A microphysical budget over the windward slope at 1.33-km horizontal grid spacing was calculated, in which the importance of each microphysical process was quantified relative to the water vapor loss (WVL) rate. Over the windward Cascades, the largest water vapor loss was associated with condensation (73% of WVL) and snow deposition (24%), and the windward surface precipitation resulted primarily from accretion of cloud water by rain (27% of WVL), graupel fallout and melt (19%), and snowmelt (6%). Two-thirds of the snow generated aloft spilled over into the lee in an area of model overprediction, resulting in windward precipitation efficiency of only 50%. Even with the large amount of precipitation spillover, the windward precipitation was still overpredicted in many locations.A series of experiments were completed using different snowfall speeds, cloud water autoconversion, threshold riming values for snow to graupel autoconversion, and slope intercepts for snow. The surface precipitation was most sensitive to those parameters associated with the snow size distribution and fall speed, while decreasing the riming threshold for snow to graupel conversion had the greatest positive impact on the precipitation forecast. All simulations overpredicted cloud water over the lower windward slopes, had too little cloud water over the crest, and had too much ice at moderate-to-large sizes aloft. Riming processes were important, since without supercooled water there were bull’s-eyes of spurious snow spillover over the lee slopes.