Predicting Earthquake Effects
Abstract
Advances in the earth sciences and information technology have lead to dramatic improvements in our ability to respond to, as well as anticipate and mitigate, earthquake effects in our communities. The development of Geographic Information System (GIS) based tools such as ShakeMap and HAZUS have ushered in a new era of risk and emergency management. Real-time maps of strong ground motion, coupled with engineering-based descriptions of building and infrastructure inventory and vulnerability enable more accurate determinations of the location and severity of earthquake damage and the socio-economic consequences for emergency managers and officials following significant earthquakes. The ability to map the distribution and growth of seismic risk in the United States has long-term benefits for public policy as well. Long-term forecasts of seismic risk based on varying mitigation strategies can provide guidance for developing national and local earthquake policy. The successful performance of the Trans-Alaska pipeline during the 2002 Denali earthquake illustrates the dependence of performance-based engineering on the ability to predict earthquake effects (e.g., levels of strong ground motion, amounts of fault displacement or ground deformation). Being able to reduce the uncertainty in predicting these parameters has significant economic consequences and enables decision makers to more efficiently prioritize risk management strategies.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2005
- Bibcode:
- 2005AGUFM.S42B..01N
- Keywords:
-
- 7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology;
- 7223 Earthquake interaction;
- forecasting;
- and prediction (1217;
- 1242)