The UAE Rainfall Enhancement Assessment Program: Implications of Thermodynamic Profiles on the Development of Precipitation in Convective Clouds over the Oman Mountains

During the winter and summer seasons of 2001 and 2002, data were collected to assess the efficacy of cloud seeding to enhance precipitation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The results of the feasibility study concluded: 1) that winter clouds in the UAE rarely produced conditions amenable to hygroscopic cloud seeding; 2) that summer convective clouds developed often enough, particularly over the Oman Mountains (e.g., the Hajar Mountains along the eastern UAE border and into Oman) to justify a randomized seeding experiment; 3) that collecting quantitative radar observations continues to be a complex but essential part of evaluating a cloud seeding experiment; 4) that successful flight operations would require solving several logistical issues; and 5) that several scientific questions would need to be studied in order to fully evaluate the efficacy and feasibility of hygroscopic cloud seeding, including cloud physical responses, radar-derived rainfall estimates as related to rainfall at the ground, and hydrological impacts. Based on these results, the UAE program proceeded through the design and implemention of a randomized hygroscopic cloud seeding experiment during the summer seasons to statistically quantify the potential for cloud seeding to enhance rainfall, specifically over the UAE and Oman Mountains, while collecting concurrent and separate physical measurements to support the statistical results and provide substantiation for the physical hypothesis. The randomized seeding experiment was carried out over the summers of 2003 and 2004, and a total of 134 cases were treated over the two summer seasons, of which 96 met the analysis criteria established in the experimental design of the program. The statistical evaluation of these cases yielded largely inconclusive results. Evidence will show that the thermodynamic profile had a large influence on storm characteristics and on precipitation development. This in turn provided a confounding factor in the conduct of the seeding experiment, particularly in the lateness of treatment in the storm cycle. The prevalence of capping inversions and the sensitivity of clouds to the level of the inversions as well as to wind shear will be shown using several data sets (soundings, aircraft, radar, numerical models). Concurrent physical measurements with the randomized experiment provided new insights into the physical processes of precipitation that developed in summertime convective clouds over the UAE that in turn helped in the interpretation of the statistical results.