A Monte Carlo Based Technique for the Orbital Characterization of Exoplanetary Systems

This paper presents a Monte Carlo based technique for the characterization of exoplanetary orbits. This technique can be used in cases where planets are not detected and after detection and works for any closed orbit. The method is based on applying restrictions to a set of orbital elements representing the universe of possible planets that meet a specific search criteria. For an observation with a given outcome (planet seen or not seen), only those orbits that are compatible with the observation are kept to form the edited or decimated set. The positions of the planets that are members of the revised set are projected forward in time and analyzed. This technique can also be used to determine the timing and number of observations subsequent to a detection to determine the orbit. Some of the computational aspects of this technique will also be discussed.