Historically Large Geomagnetic Storms and Potential Electric Power Grid Impacts
Abstract
While recent work has been done to examine the possible Dst Intensity of historically large geomagnetic storms, the impacts caused to modern day electric power grids from these storms occurs due to rapid rate-of-change of regional geomagnetic fields which in most cases are driven by large ionospheric electrojet current intensifications. These temporally and spatially dynamic disturbance morphologies are not well-characterized by Dst or other broad geomagnetic storm indices. For estimates of storm intensity that correctly scale the threat potential to electric power grids, it is necessary to describe the rate-of-change of geomagnetic field. The rate-of-change of the geomagnetic field (dB/dt usually measured in nT/min) creates at ground level a geoelectric field that causes the flow of geomagnetically-induced currents (GIC) through ground connection points in electric power grids. Therefore in general, the larger the dB/dt, the larger the resulting geo-electric field and GIC in exposed power grid infrastructures and the greater the operational impact these induced currents will have on the power grid. Both extensive modeling analysis and recent operational experience suggests that power grids are becoming more vulnerable to geomagnetic storms as they grow in size and complexity. Also, large power grid blackouts have occurred at relatively low geomagnetic storm intensities. For example, the regional disturbance intensity that triggered the Hydro Quebec collapse during the March 13, 1989 Superstorm only reached an intensity of 479 nT/min. Large numbers of power system impacts in the United States were also observed for intensities that ranged from 300 to 600 nT/min during this storm. Yet both recent and historical data indicate that storms with disturbance levels that range from 2000 nT/min to as much ~5000 nT/min may be possible over extensive regions at latitudes of concern for large continental power grids across North America and Europe. Large GIC have also been observed in power grids at low latitude locations due to other geomagnetic storm processes that in combination have the potential to suggest global-scale power grid disruptions might be plausible for historically large storms. An overview of these findings will be provided.
- Publication:
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AGU Spring Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- May 2004
- Bibcode:
- 2004AGUSMSH51B..02K
- Keywords:
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- 1513 Geomagnetic excursions;
- 1515 Geomagnetic induction;
- 2435 Ionospheric disturbances;
- 2784 Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions