Ensemble streamflow predictions: from climate scenarios to probabilistic weather predictions
Abstract
Ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) are obtained by processing an ensemble of meteorological scenarios through a rainfall-runoff hydrological model to obtain hydrological scenarios. Until recently, these scenarios were typically taken from the climatology. Now that more accurate medium- and long-term numerical weather predictions (NWP) are available, it is tempting to replace climatology by numerical weather forecasts. At least two approaches are possible to take into account the uncerta1000 inty on the meteorological forecast: (1) let a meteorologist propose a subjective probabilistic forecast based on one or more deterministic NWPs, or (2) take advantage of ensemble meteorological forecasts, which are built precisely to assess the level of uncertainty on the deterministic forecast. Practical solutions to problems encountered with both types of meteorological forecasts are discussed, and the methodology used by Hydro-Québec to score the resulting streamflow forecasts is presented.
- Publication:
-
AGU Spring Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- May 2004
- Bibcode:
- 2004AGUSM.H21E..05F
- Keywords:
-
- 1800 HYDROLOGY;
- 1854 Precipitation (3354);
- 1860 Runoff and streamflow;
- 1884 Water supply