Timescale dependent deformation of orogenic belts?

The principle aim to link geodetic, paleoseismologic and geologic estimates of fault slip is to extrapolate the respective rates from one timescale to the other to finally predict the recurrence interval of large earthquakes, which threat human habitats. This approach however, is based on two often implicitly made assumptions: a uniform slip distribution through time and space and no changes of the boundary conditions during the time interval of interest. Both assumptions are often hard to verify. A recent study, which analysed an exceptionally complete record of seismic slip for the Wasatch and related faults (Basin and Range province), ranging from 10 yr to 10 Myr suggests that such a link between geodetic and geologic rates might not exist, i.e., that our records of fault displacement may depend on the timescale over which they were measured. This view derives support from results of scaled 2D sandbox experiments, as well as numerical simulations with distinct elements, both of which investigated the effect of boundary conditions such as flexure, mechanic stratigraphy and erosion on the spatio-temporal distribution of deformation within bivergent wedges. We identified three types of processes based on their distinct spatio-temporal distribution of deformation. First, incremental strain and local strain rates are very short-lived are broadly distributed within the bivergent wedge and no temporal pattern could be established. Second, footwall shortcuts and the re-activation of either internal thrusts or of the retro shear-zone are irregularly distributed in time and are thus not predictable either, but last for a longer time interval. Third, the stepwise initiation and propagation of the deformation front is very regular in time, since it depends on the thickness of the incoming layer and on its internal and basal material properties. We consider the propagation of the deformation front as an internal clock of a thrust belt, which is therefore predictable. A deformation front advance cycle requires the longest timescale. Thus, despite known and constant boundary conditions during the simulations, we found only one regular temporal pattern of deformation in a steady active bivergent-wedge. We therefore propose that the structural inventory of an orogenic belt is hierarchically ordered with respect to accumulated slip, in analogy to the discharge pattern in a drainage network. The deformation front would have the highest, a branching splay the lowest order. Since kinematic boundary conditions control deformation front advance, its timing and the related maximum magnitude of finite strain, i.e. throw on the frontal thrust are predictable. However, the number of controlling factors, such as the degree of strain softening, the orientation of faults or fluid flow and resulting cementation of faults, responsible for the reactivation of faults increases with increasing distance from the deformation front. Since it is rarely possible to determine the complete network of forces within a wedge, the reactivation of lower order structures is not predictable in time and space. Two implications for field studies may emerge: A change of the propagation of deformation can only be determined, if at least two accretion cycles are sampled. The link between geodetic, paleoseismologic and geologic fault slip estimates can only be successfully derived if the position of the investigated fault within the hierarchical order has not changed over the time interval of interest.