Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity

Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.