Time-Dependent Coulomb Stres along the San Andreas Fault System

Many questions remain regarding the evolution of stress along the San Andreas Fault System: Which segments of the San Andreas System are approaching failure? What is the stress interaction along different fault segments for likely slip scenarios? To what extent does locking depth influence the regional stress field? To better address these questions, we have developed and tested a semi-analytic, time-dependent model for 3-D displacement and stress caused by a dislocation in an elastic layer over a viscoelastic half-space. Our model is remarkably efficient: a single time-step computation of 2048 by 2048 horizontal grid cells, containing over 400 fault elements within a 900 x 1700 km fault zone, requires approximately 1 minute of CPU time on an ordinary workstation. This speed enables us to rapidly explore various full 3-D viscoelastic models with realistic 1000-year faulting scenarios. Our approach for investigating time-dependent deformation and stress evolution of the San Andreas Fault System is as follows: We represent far-field plate motion by continuous slip in the lower portion of a 50 km thick elastic layer. Earthquakes are modeled by episodic slip along individual faults using spatially-variable locking depth and geologically-estimated recurrence intervals. Each co-seismic event results in an instantaneous change of stress within the viscoelastic half-space that slowly relaxes with time and is coupled with the evolution of stresses within the elastic plate. We investigate such evolving stresses by computing time-dependent Coulomb stress within the seismogenic zone. We find that the evolving stress field is sensitive to plate thickness, half-space viscosity, and faulting scenario. We are currently establishing a suite of models, consistent with both geodetic and geological observations, that will increase our understanding of how temporal plate-boundary deformation and stress variations within the seismogenic crust can result from different tectonic settings throughout the earthquake cycle.