On orbital evolution of exploded object fragments

In the geostationary ring several objects have been discovered, which sharply change their rates of drifts in the limits (0.15-1.0) dg/day, which is an indication for potential breakups. Four objects from them have observable fragments, which permit with confidence to calculate the moments of this event. The spherically symmetrical model of an explosion is used for the construction of fragm ent orbits. At the initial moment the orbits of the exploded object and of all fragments intersect in one point of space. Afterwards under the influence of the perturbations the intersection point begins to expand along the object orbit, but simultaneously the opposite point of intersection begins to form. The investigation of the dynamics of the intersection points allows to find the orbital arcs of the exploded object orbit, which the majority of fragments intersect during several days. The long-term orbital evolution of these objects is studied on the base of the constructed intermediate orbit with taking into account all perturbations. In this task it is necessary to know the size of orbit, its ellipticity and position in the space only, therefore calculations for a number of model fragments are fulfilled nearly instantly. Thus the search of fragments comes to the determination of orbital arcs of known objects or barriers, which fragments have to intersect. The method is tested on the real exploded objects and their fragments. This work will be partly supported by INTAS-01-0669.