Electoral surveys’ influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model
Abstract
Nowadays, in societies threatened by atomization, selfishness, short-term thinking, and alienation from political life, there is a renewed debate about classical questions concerning the quality of democratic decision making. In this work a cellular automata model for the dynamics of free elections, based on the social impact theory is proposed. By using computer simulations, power-law distributions for the size of electoral clusters and decision time have been obtained. The major role of broadcasted electoral surveys in guiding opinion formation and stabilizing the “status quo” was demonstrated. Furthermore, it was shown that in societies where these surveys are manipulated within the universally accepted statistical error bars, even a majoritary opposition could be hindered from reaching power through the electoral path.
- Publication:
-
Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
- Pub Date:
- December 2002
- DOI:
- 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01208-6
- arXiv:
- arXiv:cond-mat/0204139
- Bibcode:
- 2002PhyA..316..601A
- Keywords:
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- Condensed Matter - Statistical Mechanics;
- Nonlinear Sciences - Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases
- E-Print:
- 15 pages, 9 figures