Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as 'learning machines'
Abstract
Climate impact assessment needs to take account of two interrelated processes: socio-economic change and climate change. To date, future change in socio-economic systems has not been sufficiently integrated with an analysis of climate change impacts. Participative and synthetic scenario approaches offer a means for dealing with critical issues of indeterminacy, innovation, reflexivity and framing in analysing change in socio-economic systems, paving the way for a coherent way of handling of socio-economic futures in impact assessment. We argue that scenarios represent heuristic tools that encourage social learning in climate impact assessment. The advantages and disadvantages of a scenario-based approach are explored using examples from regional climate impact assessment in the UK.
- Publication:
-
Global Environmental Change
- Pub Date:
- January 2002
- DOI:
- 10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00006-7
- Bibcode:
- 2002GEC....12...83B
- Keywords:
-
- Climate change;
- Socio-economic scenarios;
- Impact assessment;
- Organisational learning