A Multiple Linear Regression Model For Estimation of Flood Peaks In Baden-wuerttemberg/germany
Abstract
In water resources planning good estimations of flood peaks are necessary for con- struction planning, for the estimation of the existing risk potential and for the valida- tion of rainfall-runoff models.
Generally these indexes are only available through statistical analysis for gauged sites. Furthermore the reliability of the underlying time series can often not be proven be- cause they are too short or of bad quality. Therefore a spatial adjustment of all gauge indexes was conducted before a linear multiple regression model was applied. It now enable us to estimate flood peaks for almost any ungauged site of the study area. The model bases on 8 parameters describing the catchment properties. 7 parameters can be derived directly from digital data including a digital elevation model (catch- ment size, maximum flowlength, center flowlength, weighted slope, annual rainfall, portion of urban resp. forested area). The last parameter is an empirical landscape fac- tor, which allows to consider the regional differences in flood generation. The spatial distribution of this factor has been linked in a first approach to the hydro-geological map of Baden-Wuerttemberg. The overall performance of the model is very good. But for some areas, the determination of the landscape factor is difficult. Further investigations indicated that a more process based approach allows to im- prove the fit of this landscape factor and also the quality of the regionalisation model. By integrating detailed soil information (which is available area wide) some hydro- geological classes could be subdivided in subclasses. By replacing the parameter "weighted slope" by a parameter which better describes the driving forces of flood generation, the model performance could be improved significantly.- Publication:
-
EGS General Assembly Conference Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- 2002
- Bibcode:
- 2002EGSGA..27.6220C