The Dynamics of an Ongoing Andesitic Eruption: What We Have Learned From Surface Deformation at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, BWI

The Soufriere Hills volcano (SHV) CGPS network consists of 6 dual-frequency code-phase receivers, with Dorn-Margolin choke-ring antennae, which share a common RF telemetry network. All GPS data were processed using GIPSY-OASISII to obtain free-network point positions using final orbit, clock, and earth orientation parameters from JPL. Positions were recast into ITRF97 and these positions were used to calculate component velocities. Final site velocities for each site are reported relative a fixed Caribbean reference frame (DeMets et al., 2000). By examination of the individual time series of both the campaign and continuous sites, we have been able to divide the ground deformation observations in several distinct phases, correlated with the type of eruptive behavior manifested at the surface. While the CGPS data is limited in space, and has some important and substantial gaps because of equipment failures (some of which could not be fixed due to hazardous eruptive activity), we find that the entire GPS data set can be usefully discussed in terms of three distinct periods: (1) late 1995 to the end of 1997; (2) early 1998 to late 1999; and (3) early 2000 to the present. The primary criterion used for this distinction is the vertical velocity field. During the first period (1995-1997), all stations show strong subsidence as a function of radial distance from the SH dome (Mattioli et al., 1998). Although there is a data gap between late fall 1997 and the re-establishment of the CGPS network in early 1998, all sites show inflation at about half the rate observed for the previous period of subsidence. Thus periods of significant surface outflow (1995-1997) are strongly correlated with surface subsidence, while periods of no apparent surface magma flux are strongly correlated with ground surface inflation. Although the exact timing is somewhat equivocal, subsidence resumed at all CGPS sites just prior to the emergence of the Millennium Dome in late November to Early December 1999 and continues today. Data from each of the distinct periods has been inverted using a modified, downhill simplex method for an elastic half-space. Our code explicitly includes provision for a Mogi-type source and perpendicular opening across a planer dislocation (i.e. dike). All best-fit models have two distinct sub-surface pressure sources (deep Mogi and shallow dike oriented NW) whose initial geometry and magnitude were not fixed a priori. Inferred Mogi depths range from 4.5 to 6.0 km, with changing polarity in time, and the dimensions and inferred opening displacement of the dike have decreased from an initial maximum of ~1 m in each of the three periods. Our observations demonstrate that SHV is also affected by longer-period semi-periodic behavior, similar to that reported by Voight et al. (1998) for very short-period fluctuations on the order of 6-14 hr.