Improved 2001 Leonid Storm Predictions from a Refined Model

It is expected that the cumulative non-gravitational effect on the semi-major axis in the dust trails that produce meteor outbursts is an important factor affecting the particle spread along the orbit and therefore the apparent ZHR behavior. In this work, we determine a numerical value estimate of this effect from earlier observations, mainly those from the year 2000. Besides getting a better post-prediction of the course of the ZHR curve, we also find that the observed maximum ZHR value of the 8-revolution outburst (1733) is better explained with the new model when the derived non-gravitational A2 distribution is taken into account. The model and newly derived parameter values are used to improve the predictions for the year 2001. The predicted outbursts for the year 2002 have not yet been treated in this way.