Evaluation of Models for Palaeoclimate Simulation over Southern Africa
Abstract
Climate model simulations facilitate the inference of regional climate, and identification of relationships between the model and the palaeo-evidence. Evaluation of palaeoclimate simulations further provides opportunities for model validation under conditions different from those used in the simulation of current climate, and constitutes an important means of improving levels of confidence in such models. In this sense the aim is to establish the accuracy of the models represented for palaeoclimatic simulations. Firstly, an evaluation is done of a selection of GCM simulations of present day data through a regionalisation of climate with cluster analysis. This evaluation is carried out using a comparison of model climate regions with those identified in NCEP reanalysis data. The climate regional boundary changes are then examined under palaeo simulations. Relationships arising from palaeoclimate model simulations of the region hold the potential for evaluation of the climate state over longer timescales. Since palaeoecological evidence has suggested considerable changes in the southern African region over the last 20-25ka, this is the primary time period under focus. The study is conducted using selected climate models courtesy of PMIP (Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project). Early results comparing these regions with proxy palaeodata show evidence of the models ability to capture an alternate climate state.
- Publication:
-
AGU Spring Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- May 2001
- Bibcode:
- 2001AGUSM...A31D06M
- Keywords:
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- 1620 Climate dynamics (3309);
- 1699 General or miscellaneous;
- 3344 Paleoclimatology;
- 9305 Africa;
- 9604 Cenozoic