A theoretical treatment of technical risk in modern propulsion system design

A prevalent trend in modern aerospace systems is increasing complexity and cost, which in turn drives increased risk. Consequently, there is a clear and present need for the development of formalized methods to analyze the impact of risk on the design of aerospace vehicles. The objective of this work is to develop such a method that enables analysis of risk via a consistent, comprehensive treatment of aerothermodynamic and mass properties aspects of vehicle design. The key elements enabling the creation of this methodology are recent developments in the analytical estimation of work potential based on the second law of thermodynamics. This dissertation develops the theoretical foundation of a vehicle analysis method based on work potential and validates it using the Northrop F-5E with GE J85-GE-21 engines as a case study. Although the method is broadly applicable, emphasis is given to aircraft propulsion applications. Three work potential figures of merit are applied using this method: exergy, available energy, and thrust work potential. It is shown that each possesses unique properties making them useful for specific vehicle analysis tasks, though the latter two are actually special cases of exergy. All three are demonstrated on the analysis of the J85-GE-21 propulsion system, resulting in a comprehensive description of propulsion system thermodynamic loss. This "loss management" method is used to analyze aerodynamic drag loss of the F-5E and is then used in conjunction with the propulsive loss model to analyze the usage of fuel work potential throughout the F-5E design mission. The results clearly show how and where work potential is used during flight and yield considerable insight as to where the greatest opportunity for design improvement is. Next, usage of work potential is translated into fuel weight so that the aerothermodynamic performance of the F-5E can be expressed entirely in terms of vehicle gross weight. This technique is then applied as a means to quantify the impact of engine cycle technologies on the F-5E airframe. Finally, loss management methods are used in conjunction with probabilistic analysis methods to quantify the impact of risk on F-5E aerothermodynamic performance.