Predicting future duration from present age: a critical assessment
Abstract
Using a temporal version of the Copernican principle, Gott has proposed a statistical predictor of future longevity based on present age (Gott III, J. R., 1993, Nature, 363, 315) and applied the predictor to a variety of examples, including the longevity of the human species. Although Gott's proposal contains a grain of truth, it does not have the universal predictive power that he attributes to it.
- Publication:
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Contemporary Physics
- Pub Date:
- March 2000
- DOI:
- 10.1080/001075100181105
- arXiv:
- arXiv:astro-ph/0001414
- Bibcode:
- 2000ConPh..41..143C
- Keywords:
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- Astrophysics;
- General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology;
- Physics - Data Analysis;
- Statistics and Probability
- E-Print:
- 17 pages, standard LaTeX