Determination of the Climate Change in the Russian Arctic Using a Synoptic Climatological Approach
Major winter air mass categories are determined by using a temporal synoptic index at seven Russian Arctic stations. A detailed examination of the frequency and character trends of these air masses is made to detect any significant modifications over the past 40 to 50 years. A comprehensive set of 500 mb polar circulation patterns is developed by applying rotated principal components analysis on the octagonal gridded height departures north of 60^circ. Stepwise regression analyses are used to relate upper level circulation patterns and the frequency and character variations of the air masses. In addition, the relationship between surface air temperature and the frequency and character of the air masses is determined by stepwise regression analyses. The research indicates that there has been little detectable climate change in the Russian Arctic during the past few decades. The surface air temperature variations are mainly controlled by a few extreme air masses that pass through the region, and these air masses are determined, in large part, by the upper level circulation.
- Pub Date:
- POLAR CIRCULATION;
- Physical Geography; Physics: Atmospheric Science