Modelling the mechanism of interaction between heliophysical and geophysical processes.

Based on relations and delays between various geophysical and heliophysical processes, a simple autoregressive model is developed for the effect of space-physical factors on geophysical (especially meteorological) processes. In this model, at a certain moment of time, any geophysical process can be represented as a superposition of preceding values of the process itself and the other space-geophysical and geophysical processes considered. This approach makes it possible to determine minimum orders of the autoregressive model necessary for the long-term prediction (one year in advance) of space-physical effects.