Statistics of the geomagnetic secular variation for the past 5Ma

A new statistical model is proposed for the geomagnetic secular variation over the past 5Ma. Unlike previous models, the model makes use of statistical characteristics of the present day geomagnetic field. The spatial power spectrum of the non-dipole field is consistent with a white source near the core-mantle boundary with Gaussian distribution. After a suitable scaling, the spherical harmonic coefficients may be regarded as statistical samples from a single giant Gaussian process; this is the model of the non-dipole field. The model can be combined with an arbitrary statistical description of the dipole and probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions can be computed for declination and inclination that would be observed at any site on Earth's surface. Global paleomagnetic data spanning the past 5Ma are used to constrain the statistics of the dipole part of the field. A simple model is found to be consistent with the available data. An advantage of specifying the model in terms of the spherical harmonic coefficients is that it is a complete statistical description of the geomagnetic field, enabling us to test specific properties for a general description. Both intensity and directional data distributions may be tested to see if they satisfy the expected model distributions.