A model of a wasp colony population, Paravespula vulgaris (L.)

A model has been developed which predicts the numbers of immature and adult workers, males and queens, in a Paravespula vulgaris colony throughout a season. This model colony is based on the rate of egg lay of the queen which is approximated by a skewed normal frequency curve. Larval and pupal numbers are predicted by applying mean developmental times to the eggs produced. For workers, adult numbers are produced by modifying pupal numbers by adult longevity, while adult males and queens are obtained directly from their respective pupal numbers. Data generated by the model compare favourably with published observations.

Changes in the larva : worker ratio through the season affecting adult longevity and immature stage developmental times are discussed. The total number of adults produced per worker (Ro) varies throughout the season following a skewed normal frequency distribution. Adult queens and males accounted for only 15% of the total seasonal egg production.

This model could easily be adapted to deal with population changes in colonies of other eusocial wasps.