COAL1: A dynamic model for the analysis of United States energy policy
Abstract
A technical description of the data and assumptions of COAL1, a system dynamics model constructed to aid in the analysis and design of United States energy policy was presented. The following dynamic mechanisms combine to create a growing gap between domestic energy demand and production in the COAL1 model: (1) a tendency toward exponential growth in the demand for energy; (2) depletion of the domestic oil and gas resource base; and (3) delays and constraints in the development of alternative energy sources such as synthetic fuels, nuclear power or electricity from coal. With no major changes in policy, it was concluded that imports are likely to rise to 50 percent of energy needs by 1985. Only a combined program that stabilizes energy demand and accelerates the use of coal can avoid massive oil and gas imports over the long term.
- Publication:
-
Ph.D. Thesis
- Pub Date:
- 1976
- Bibcode:
- 1976PhDT........15N
- Keywords:
-
- Dynamic Models;
- Energy Policy;
- Energy Sources;
- United States;
- Earth Resources;
- Energy Consumption;
- International Relations;
- International Trade;
- Nuclear Energy;
- Energy Production and Conversion