Integrated simulation study on the formation of flare-productive regions and the onset of solar flares
Abstract
What is the condition for forming flare-productive regions and what determines the onset of large solar flares are crucial issues for solar flare study and space weather forecast. However, although various studies have been published so far from the different aspects, they are not yet well elucidated, hindering the predictability of large flares. In this study, we have developed three numerical models and conducted an integrated study to holistically understand the process from the formation of active regions to the onset of solar flares. The first model is the realistic magnetic flux emergence simulation using the radiative magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) code R2D2 (Hotta et al. 2019). We surveyed the interaction between the convection and the magnetic flux emergence through an ensemble simulation and derived a condition for producing a flare-productive delta-spot region. The second model is the physics-based flare prediction model, called kappa-scheme (Kusano et al. 2020). We evaluated the MHD stability of active regions synthesized by the first model and predicted a possible flare using it. The third model is the data-driven simulation (Kaneko et al. 2021), and we simulated the nonlinear dynamics of solar flares which may occur in the synthesized active region. Finally, we discuss the causal relationship between the flux emergence, the formation and stability of active regions, and solar flares through the comparative analyses of the integrated simulation and the variety of observations. The result suggests the possibility of a new type of prediction for the formation of the flare-productive region and the onset of solar flares.
- Publication:
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44th COSPAR Scientific Assembly. Held 16-24 July
- Pub Date:
- July 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022cosp...44.2466K