Using the Application Usability Levels framework to inform and track progress in ionospheric scintillation forecast research
Abstract
Predicting the onset of nighttime ionospheric plasma disturbances in the equatorial region, called Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs), has become a research focus in recent years. This shift in research attention has been motivated by the adverse impacts of EPBs on satellite positioning and communications; in particular, the strong amplitude and phase scintillations. Currently, no space weather forecasting agency/organisation openly provides daily predictions of ionospheric scintillation events caused by EPBs, despite decades of active EPB research and acquired knowledge of EPB occurrence characteristics. There are many possible reasons for the lack of an effective uptake by space weather forecasters to deliver such predictions. However, the most significant has arguably been the lack of understanding of the daily EPB occurrence variability, combined with the relatively large gap between fundamental research (and researchers themselves) and the applications affected by ionospheric scintillation; particularly those using Global Navigation Satellite System signals. In this contribution, the Application Usability Level (AUL) framework is introduced and the benefits of its application in bridging the gap between fundamental research and its application in the real-world case of EPB/scintillation prediction are discussed. In particular, the AUL framework encourages researchers to engage in regular interactions with end-users to ensure that their research application is indeed usable and meets their needs/requirements. In the case of ionospheric scintillation research, the end-users are very diverse, both in terms of their applications and their ongoing and evolving requirements. As a way of reaching such a broad spectrum of end-users, the Australian space weather forecasting agency, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Space Weather Services, were engaged on this project as direct collaborators and serve as an effective interface between basic research and end-users. Our input into the development of the AUL framework enabled us to identify a field-wide sticking point in the development of ionospheric scintillation models; verification and assessment metrics. Some recent work investigating the use of assessment metrics will also be discussed and plans to use the AULs to track progress in this research work into the future will be outlined.
- Publication:
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43rd COSPAR Scientific Assembly. Held 28 January - 4 February
- Pub Date:
- January 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021cosp...43E2361C