Dispersion Modelling at the London VAAC 10 Years after the Eyjafjallajökull Ash Cloud
Abstract
It has been 10 years since the ash cloud from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano caused chaos to global air traffic. The severity of the disruption led to rapid changes in regulatory response and required the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) to provide new forecasts of ash concentrations, representing a step-change in the level of interrogation of their dispersion model output. However, the event also afforded the scientific community a unique opportunity to observe and extensively study a volcanic ash cloud, from which we have gained new insight into their transport and dispersion through the atmosphere.
The NAME atmospheric dispersion model, and its application in the London VAAC forecasting system, has undergone significant development over the last decade, based on the lessons learned from the 2010 event. A good simulation of the transport of a volcanic ash cloud requires an accurate representation of the source and we have introduced more sophisticated approaches to representing the eruption source parameters, and their uncertainties, in the operational system. We have also improved the representation of both the horizontal and vertical atmospheric transport of volcanic ash in NAME. Further, the 3-dimensional meteorological data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models used to drive the dispersion model is now more accurate than it was in 2010. These developments have resulted in a more robust modelling system at the London VAAC, ready to provide forecasts and guidance during the next volcanic ash event affecting their region. To meet the future needs of the International Airways Volcano Watch the VAACs will need to continue to address outstanding scientific and technical challenges in their modelling systems. Which include, further model development to improve the representation of the eruption cloud and atmospheric processes, better integration of observations, and consideration of new strategies to successfully optimize computer resource. In addition, we advocate further model inter-comparison studies and conducting regular exercises to improve modelling strategies, test forecasting processes and ensure good communication between the different communities.- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMV015.0004B
- Keywords:
-
- 1922 Forecasting;
- INFORMATICS;
- 5480 Volcanism;
- PLANETARY SCIENCES: SOLID SURFACE PLANETS;
- 8414 Eruption mechanisms and flow emplacement;
- VOLCANOLOGY;
- 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks;
- VOLCANOLOGY