Feasibility Study of China's Electric Power Sector Transition to Zero Emissions by 2050
Abstract
The study explores the potential transition of China's electric power sector to zero emissions by 2050. Using a capacity expansion model (CEPRO) with 31 regions, hourly time resolution, and 39-years of historical reanalysis weather data (MERRA-2), we simulate the expansion and operation of the power sector. Instead of confronting alternative electricity-generating technologies based on costs, we consider China's abundant solar and wind energy as the primary source of generation, and study conditions for reaching a high-renewables power system, complementarity, and substitutability of alternative balancing options: hourly energy storage, long-distance grid, back-up capacity (bioenergy), and flexibility on the demand side. In total, we consider 68 scenarios with different settings of balancing options; each scenario describes the state and operation of a nearly 100% VER-based power system in 2050. The optimization is undertaken from scratch, assuming that most of the current capacities will be retired by 2050 (except hydro and nuclear). The base year of weather information is 2018; sensitivity analysis is conducted for the six selected scenarios on 39 years of historical weather data.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMGC0740007L
- Keywords:
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- 1610 Atmosphere;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1615 Biogeochemical cycles;
- processes;
- and modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1635 Oceans;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1645 Solid Earth;
- GLOBAL CHANGE