Linking Hydroclimatic Dynamics and Economic Business Cycles
Abstract
In an integrated framework of spatially heterogeneous systems, we illustrate the significance of linking water system dynamics with economic business cycles. This study considers compound extremes across time, space, and systems. We quantify the likelihood and the impacts of a triple-dimension drought (high economic demand, high agronomic demand, and low hydrological supply) on hydrological and economic systems. This study introduces a framework to link global hydroclimatic dynamics to global economic trends and cycles. We identify the conditions under which a combination of an economic boom and consecutive years of drought leads to intensified sustainability stresses on land and water resources.
In this study, we link SIMPLE-G (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment) and WBM (Water Balance Model). The SIMPLE-G model is an economic equilibrium model with local markets for land and water as well as regional markets for agricultural products. It determines the likely responses of agricultural production and food demand to local stresses and global changes. Here, we focus on major adaptation and adjustment pathways including international trade, irrigation efficiency, geographical relocation, and expansion of irrigated areas. On the other hand, the Water Balance Model illustrates the dynamics of global surface water and groundwater resources. Within this framework, we simulate the historical observations of changing water resources and national economic conditions. Then we project the future dynamics of water resources considering climate scenarios as well as fine-scale implications of population and income growth.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMGC0720011H
- Keywords:
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- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1834 Human impacts;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 3275 Uncertainty quantification;
- MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS;
- 6344 System operation and management;
- POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES