Using Climate Models for Water Supply Sustainability Studies in Southern Oklahoma
Abstract
The Red River, which extends from the mountains of New Mexico to the Mississippi River, is a crucial source of water for agriculture, tourism, power generation and municipal water supply. In early 2015, the Red River Basin was experiencing one of the worst droughts in its recorded history. Only months later, severe flooding caused catastrophic damage to homes and transportation infrastructure throughout the basin. These hydrologic extremes caused enormous disruption to those who rely on a more regular hydrologic regime. In light of these events, scientists, water managers, and other stakeholders are interested in learning what hydrology to expect in the future. A methodology was developed for using output from three global climate model (GCM) projections from CMIP5, downscaling each for use as input to a VIC rainfall-runoff model of the entire basin, and developing a RiverWare water accounting model in order to provide hydrologic information useful to water managers and other stakeholders. As part of a project funded by the USGS South Central Climate Science Adaptation Center, researchers at the University of Oklahoma and the Choctaw and Chickasaw Nations developed projections of future hydrology which were examined from the perspective of water right holders, lake level managers, and economic leaders. We concluded that while there are significant differences between the various GCMs, especially when considering a range of emissions scenarios (RCPs), the hydrology of south-central Oklahoma will likely remain relatively unchanged, while western portions of the basin are expected to become drier, and eastern portions wetter. Furthermore, we can expect longer droughts and more extreme flooding throughout the basin in the future. While there is considerable uncertainty in the future hydrology of the basin, driven primarily by uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission (and the RCP-proxy), the models developed provide a useful set of tools for decision-making related to water resources management. This is especially true in Oklahoma, where decisions on water right applications are made based on the average annual flow of rivers. The RiverWare models produced during this project have since been used for many other activities, including the development of drought contingency plans and instream flow studies.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMGC0020004A
- Keywords:
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- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1637 Regional climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 6309 Decision making under uncertainty;
- POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES;
- 6334 Regional planning;
- POLICY SCIENCES & PUBLIC ISSUES