Current and Future Characteristics of Arctic Cyclones in CMIP6 Models
Abstract
The rapid warming of the Arctic regions has gained a lot of attention wi th both scientific community and the general public as a result of the large changes observed in the Arctic climate system over the past several decades and concerns about changes over the next decades to centuries . An important process in the Arctic climate system is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean. This interaction is heavily affected by cyclones passing over the Arctic region and the sea ice covering the ocean. Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness have reduced significantly in the recent years. Arctic cyclones have also experienced changes in their characteristics, but thes e changes have been more difficult to assess . A full scientific consensus is still missing on how cyclone characteristics have changed in the Arctic.
In this presentation we investigate the future of Arctic cyclones and sea ice by comparing an ensemble of CMIP6 models to current reanalysis data (ERA5), as well as model intercomparison within CMIP6 and finally to the future simulations (ssp585) to have an idea how cyclones, sea ice and their interactions will change in the future. We will look into different cyclone characteristics such as cyclone counts, sizes, lifetime, and intensity and how these variable co-vary with the changing sea ice cover, how well this relationship is presented in the ensemble of models, and how/if this covariance will change with time.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMA151.0007V
- Keywords:
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- 3305 Climate change and variability;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3349 Polar meteorology;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 1621 Cryospheric change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 4504 Air/sea interactions;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL