Impact of different physics schemes on the forecast of a heat wave with the UFS Short-Range Weather Application
Abstract
This presentation focuses on the impact of different physics schemes on the forecast of a heat wave case with the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Short-Range Weather (SRW) Application. Operational and experimental physics suites available in the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) are used to test the model's ability to predict the heat wave at various scales and configurations.
The model was run with three horizontal grid spacings: 25 km, 13 km, and 3 km. The tested physics suites include the currently operational GFS v15.2 configuration, the candidate for operations GFS v16beta, and several experimental suites containing physics options from the operational WRF-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) models. The model forecasts were validated against observations, including surface stations, radiosondes and radar observations over the Contiguous United States (CONUS), with a focus on temperature, humidity, radiation, winds, and precipitation. Preliminary results show that the 2-m temperature bias for the GFS suites is small at initialization and increases with time at most locations. The 2-m temperature bias displays significant regional variation: a positive bias in the western United States (US), a negative bias in the central U.S. over the Great Plains, and a small positive bias in the eastern U.S. (e.g., Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina). The impact of the diurnal cycle is obvious for the GFS suites. The bias pattern for the RAP/HRRR-based suites is different from the bias pattern of the GFS suites, except for the GSD_noah suite, which uses the same land surface model as the GFS suites.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2020
- Bibcode:
- 2020AGUFMA129...12P
- Keywords:
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- 3365 Subgrid-scale (SGS) parameterization;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES