The event you can not fit well makes your model stronger - modeling the 2017 September 10 SEP event using the iPATH model
Abstract
The 2017 September 10 event was a large SEP event with observations from multiple spacecraft that have both large longitudinal and radial separations. Multi-spacecraft observations pose very strong constraints to the underlying SEP models. In this work we attempt to simulate the 2017/09/10 event using the iPATH model. By varying various input parameters that takes into account of the observational constraints, we find that an reasonable fit to the observation leads to an interplanetary magnetic field which is very much distorted, leading to a magnetic connection that sees a shift of longitude of 40 degrees. This could occur because there were multiple preceding eruptions. Our study suggests that in order to forecasting/nowcasting SEP events, history of heliospheric magnetic field, in particular, the influence/imprints by preceding eruptions, is as important a consideration as the eruption itself. We also discuss what would be a complete knowledge set for operational forecasting of an SEP event. Our consideration is based on the assumption that energetic particles seen in large SEP events are accelerated at a CME-driven shock, and an efficient acceleration at a shock front depends on a number of parameters including shock geometry, seed population, upstream wave intensity, etc. Only by correctly defining the complete knowledge set can a future SEP forecasting model which is based on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning be trustworthy.
- Publication:
-
Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE 2019)
- Pub Date:
- May 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019shin.confE.196L