Consequence-driven, counterfactual framework for multi-hazard scenario development
Abstract
Scenario planning for potential hazards and estimating associated consequences is one of the main challenges facing disaster risk management. This is typically conducted by considering the past as indicative of present and future activity, and often limited to considering a single hazard at a time. A key limitation to this approach is that we can be surprised by events, or combinations of events, that are not well recognized in the past, or that have not occurred in our recorded history. Furthermore, the consequences of our past are driven, in part, by randomness, and a single realization of an event may not capture the full range of possibilities. These possibilities may further be obscured by human error and limited information. Through an interdisciplinary blend of approaches from engineering, science, history, and psychology, we formalize the use of a counterfactual, consequence-driven framework in order to better capture the full range of possible consequences from past events. Specifically, we discuss how this framework can be used to develop a catalog of consequential scenarios, even in a place where such records are limited in number, scope, or impact. We exercise this framework for Singapore, a highly urban island city-state which has had limited encounters with natural hazards, and discuss how this approach can also be applied to regions that have more substantial or emerging hazards. Through this lens, we discuss how past events, or lack of events, can unintentionally limit our preparedness for future hazards, especially when considering compound, multi-hazard events.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMPA33F1146L
- Keywords:
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- 4306 Multihazards;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4338 Disaster policy;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4341 Early warning systems;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4343 Preparedness and planning;
- NATURAL HAZARDS