Evaluation of CMIP6 Models' Performance on Simulation of Indian Summer Monsoon
Abstract
The Indian summer monsoon (ISM), a part of Asian monsoon is an important weather phenomenon and it has both a direct influence (on one-fourth of the world's population living in the Indian subcontinent) and an indirect influence through teleconnections on the global climate. Therefore, accurate simulations of precipitation and its variabilities are of scientific and social importance, however, it yet remains a great modeling challenge. GCMs are an effective tool to study global monsoon systems and are being widely used to better understand the earth's climate and vagaries. However, the capability of recently released GCM model runs in simulating the regional phenomenon such as Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is yet to be analyzed. The present study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating ISM climatology and its variability during the historical period. The CMIP6 models are compared with observed precipitation and other reanalysis variables. Interannual variability and intraseasonal variability (in terms of active and break spells) of ISM are assessed by identifying the best and consistent model which can represent ISM most realistically. Apart from the spatial distribution and frequency, and intensities, the representation of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the CMIP6 models are also investigated. The present analysis provides a broader perspective on the long-term statistics of the variability of ISMR and also answers few important questions such as what is the major cause of biases in simulating the observed distribution in most of the climate models?
Keywords: Indian Summer Monsoon, CMIP6, Interannual Variability, Intraseasonal Variability, Monsoonal Circulations.- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFMGC42E..07D
- Keywords:
-
- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1626 Global climate models;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1866 Soil moisture;
- HYDROLOGY