A new dataset of eruption source parameters devoted to eruptive column model evaluation.
Abstract
Eruptive column models are crucial to the management of volcanic crises, to the forecasting of future events and to the reconstruction of past eruptions. Given their central role and the large uncertainties undermining their predictions, the evaluation and improvement of these models is critical. Such evaluation is challenging as it requires independent estimates of the main model inputs (e.g. mass eruption rate) and outputs (e.g. "the" column height). Despite recent efforts to extend compilations of independently estimated eruption source parameters (ESP) (e.g. Mastin 2014, Aubry et al. 2017), there is no standard, community-based ESP database devoted to the evaluation of eruptive column models.
We will present a new ESP dataset designed specifically for evaluating these models and aimed to become an online database open to the community. Data for over 110 eruptive events are gathered in the dataset with independent estimates of: i) the mass eruption rate; ii) the height reached by the column; and iii) atmospheric conditions during the eruption. In contrast with previous ESP datasets, we distinguish estimates of column height that relate to different phases (ash and SO2) and part of the column (plume top or umbrella). For all events for which they are available, we additionally provide the total grain size distribution, uncertainties on eruption parameters, and multiple sources for atmospheric profiles. The dataset includes a wealth of additional information enabling modelers to distinguish different eruptions when evaluating or calibrating models, such as the type of eruption, the morphology of the plume (weak/transitional/strong), and the occurrence and mass entrained within pyroclastic density currents. We will apply the new dataset to revisit empirical scaling relationships between the mass eruption rate and "plume height". In particular, thanks to the large number of events and the details provided in the new dataset, we will show how such relationships depend on the type of height (e.g. SO2 height vs. ash top height) and eruption (e.g. magmatic vs. phreatomagmatic) considered. We will also discuss the difficulties and limitations of: i) compiling ESP estimates from the literature; and ii) characterizing fundamentally unsteady volcanic events by a single value for each ESP.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.V32A..02A
- Keywords:
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- 4314 Mathematical and computer modeling;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 8414 Eruption mechanisms and flow emplacement;
- VOLCANOLOGY;
- 8428 Explosive volcanism;
- VOLCANOLOGY;
- 8445 Experimental volcanism;
- VOLCANOLOGY