Socio-Hydrological Modelling of the Tradeoff Between Flood Control and Hydropower Provided by the Columbia River Treaty
Abstract
The Columbia River Treaty was signed in 1961 to manage shared waters between United States and Canada. Both countries had gained from cooperation in the management of the Columbia River to optimize benefits for the whole system. Through the treaty, Canada operates dams to provides flood protection and maximize hydropower potential downstream. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to compensate Canada for half of the estimated benefits of the treaty, which provides an economic incentive to cooperate not seen in many other transboundary basins. However, since the treaty was established, external social and environmental factors not originally anticipated have affected the balance of benefits each country receives. For example, mounting social pressure in the 1990s to protect the aquatic environment resulted in operational changes to U.S. dams to accommodate flows for fish migration, which ultimately resulted in financial losses for hydropower producers. Since environmental considerations were not included in the original treaty, the U.S. experienced a reduction in benefits from river operations. In addition, thriving urban centers along the river have grown significantly, increasing the flood risk.
As the negotiations are underway to decide the future of the treaty after 2024, it is an ideal time to assess what factors will influence each country's willingness to cooperate going forward. In this study, a range of hydrological, economic, social, and environmental datasets were analyzed, and the arising socio-hydrological model demonstrates how the relative share of benefits each country receives has changed over time. The model is calibrated using historical data to mimic operational changes, shifts in flood control and hydropower production, and cooperation dynamics. We explore different potential scenarios for optimizing both sides' benefits to understand what would make cooperation worthwhile and what changes may make it undesirable. This study contributes to the understanding of how to develop and maintain stability in transboundary river management, including floodplain resilience, through utilizing comparative strengths and sharing the benefits of productive uses.- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.H51C..03C
- Keywords:
-
- 1813 Eco-hydrology;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1820 Floodplain dynamics;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1890 Wetlands;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 4327 Resilience;
- NATURAL HAZARDS