Recent Updates to NCEP Global Modeling Systems: Implementation of FV3 based Global Forecast System (GFS v15.1) and Plans for Implementation of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv12)
Abstract
NCEP has successfully implemented the first instantiation of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) medium-range weather application into operations on June 12, 2019. This Global Forecast System based on the Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) dynamic core (GFSv15.1) replaced the legacy spectral model based GFS that was serving National Weather Service for more than 38 years. This heralds a new era of operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) at NCEP and is a significant milestone for NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Program and for NOAA's National Weather Service.
Following the deterministic global model upgrade, NCEP is planning on implementing the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS v12) in Q4FY20. Apart from using the same FV3 based global model, GEFSv12 will include higher horizontal resolution, increased number of ensembles, advanced stochastic physics for representation of forecast uncertainty, coupling to wave ensembles, and, for the first time, extending the forecast length to 35 days for providing operational forecast guidance for weeks 3&4. GEFSv12 also comes with 20-year reanalysis and 30-year reforecast data for calibration of forecast products. This talk describes the salient features of FV3 based GFS and GEFS modeling systems, results from evaluation of retrospective and real-time forecasts including extreme weather events, and plans for unifying various NCEP operational applications in the production suite. Effective strategies for enabling a robust R2O framework and support system, and procedures for accelerated transition of advanced research into operations will also be described.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.A34C..01T
- Keywords:
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- 3329 Mesoscale meteorology;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3354 Precipitation;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3355 Regional modeling;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDS