Is the Extreme March 2019 Flooding Event in Nebraska a Preview of Future Weather Paradigms in a Changing Climate?
Abstract
A set of circumstances were in play that resulted in the historic flooding in Nebraska during March of 2019, and continuing through the spring. Precipitation was above normal in the time period leading up to the flood, which allowed for soils to be at or near saturation. In the 12 month period of March 2018 - February 2019, the total precipitation for Nebraska ranks as 6th wettest on record (since 1895). Fall was wetter than normal (18th wettest) and winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) was 7th wettest on record. Temperatures were below average leading up to the March storm (February was 8th coldest on record), which allowed deep frozen soil conditions. Snow was generally plentiful over the winter and a few inches of water equivalent was atop a frozen and saturated landscape. The NOAA flood outlook going into spring was much above normal risk, with an increased risk for major flooding. A rapidly intensifying cyclone moved across the U.S. on March 13-14, which produced blizzard conditions in western Nebraska and several inches of rain in the east. Temperatures were relatively mild (above freezing) and the relative warmth and rain on snow caused rapid melting. River ice was thick and ice jams occurred.
The March 2019 flooding event in Nebraska was well covered by local, regional, and national US news media. While assertions were made that the flooding may have been related to or caused by climate change, the authors present results from climate predictions, local observation trends, and the Fourth National Climate Assessment to assess if the March flood is part of a extreme weather paradigm shift.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.A33K3002C
- Keywords:
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- 3305 Climate change and variability;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3320 Idealized model;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 3337 Global climate models;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGE