Operational Tropical Cyclone Modeling at NOAA's National Weather Service National Center for Environmental Prediction (NWS/NCEP): Recent Advances and Future Plans
Abstract
Regional Hurricane modeling systems developed and implemented into operations at National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are now used for tropical cyclone (TC) forecast guidance in all ocean basins of the world. Lately, HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast) and HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic) modeling systems have made significant improvements to the state of the art in numerical guidance for tropical cyclone track, intensity, size, and structure forecasts. These improvements come from advances in various components of the modeling system that are incorporated into the model in yearly upgrade cycles.
Recently, NCEP has embarked on advancing the next generation operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) at NWS. FV3-based HAFS will be a multi-scale model and data assimilation package capable of providing analyses and forecasts of the inner core structure of the TC out to 7 days, which is key to improving size and intensity predictions, as well as the large-scale environment that is known to influence the TC's motion. It will provide an advanced analysis and forecast system for cutting-edge research on modeling, physics, data assimilation, and coupling to earth system components for high-resolution TC predictions within the outlined Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)/Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) objectives of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). In this presentation, real-time performance of HWRF/HMON//HAFS models will be discussed along with plans for hurricane model improvements in the next two to five years.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.A11G..05M
- Keywords:
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- 0315 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 0360 Radiation: transmission and scattering;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 3372 Tropical cyclones;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDS