The value of measuring and mapping montane urbanization
Abstract
Changes in information are valuable when the changes improve decisions. Information is especially valuable in the chaos of a natural disaster. Mountain regions are hazardous places and especially vulnerable to natural disasters, e.g., droughts, earthquakes, fires, floods, and landslides. Knowing where people are is critical information for resource allocation in response to a disaster. Remote sensing data provide a clear case where new, potentially actionable, information is created and the value of that information can be measured once the uncertainty of the information is resolved. Actions may not yet have been taken, but are likely.
We develop a framework for valuing remote sensing products. Our framework bounds the value of remote sensing, like many forms of science, remote sensing creates two first-order pathways of value generation. First, remote sensing reduces measurement error which can directly lead to better resource allocation with the same "allocation rules." Second, remote sensing can create new kinds of information that catalyze improved resource allocation with "new rules." Both can lead to fewer deaths or displacements following a natural disaster. A key empirical challenge is controlling for the fact that "better" rules could have been used with the old information, so the value added of the rule change cannot be considered a first-order benefit of new remote sensing information, but the interaction effect should be considered. We apply the framework to remotely sensed data in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region of Nepal, which faces the twin challenges of natural hazards and montane urbanization. We use cutting-edge remote sensing techniques to characterize and map montane urbanization. Then, we use econometric techniques to estimate decision rules for resource allocation and the the "life saving production function." Finally, we use these estimates in our value of remote sensing information framework to bound the value of our cutting edge remote sensing science in terms of lives saved and reduced human displacement. Our results provide a path forward for talking about the lower bound of the value of remote sensing science.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMPA33B..32F
- Keywords:
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- 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1918 Decision analysis;
- INFORMATICSDE: 6304 Benefit-cost analysis;
- POLICY SCIENCESDE: 6620 Science policy;
- PUBLIC ISSUES