The Fire Climate that Preceded the Largest Fire in California History: A Statistical Anomaly or Wave of the Future?
Abstract
When the Thomas Fire started in early December 2017 near Santa Paula, California, there was no history to suggest that by the time it was fully contained in January 2018, it would become the largest fire in California history, at approximately 114,000 ha (282,000 ac), destroying over a thousand structures. The vegetation it stripped in the foothills of Santa Barbara County contributed to a mud and debris flow on January 9, 2018 that killed at least 21 people, destroyed over 100 homes, and shut down a major freeway between southern and central/northern California for 12 days. Of the 20 largest fires listed by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, the Thomas Fire is the only one that burned in the winter season.
This study examines the fire climate of weather stations in the Thomas Fire area to determine statistical trends of fire indices that capture the fire potential induced in vegetation by local weather conditions, particularly through their effects on fuel moisture content. The degree and persistence of fire danger prior to and during the Thomas Fire will be compared with the long-term climate record, with the intent of describing trends, if any, in the latter. Similar analyses will be performed on regional climate simulations for the area, which are more recent and therefore cover a shorter period but with more spatial detail.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMNH34C..03C
- Keywords:
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- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1920 Emerging informatics technologies;
- INFORMATICSDE: 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4341 Early warning systems;
- NATURAL HAZARDS