A Spatiotemporal Model for Extreme Precipitations of a Large Climate Simulation Ensemble
Abstract
Extreme precipitation plays a major role in flooding events and their occurrence and intensity are expected to increase. Because climate models are the only tools for providing quantitative projections of precipitation, flood risk management for the future climate may be based on the simulation of such events. The purpose of the talk is to present a spatiotemporal model for extreme precipitations from a large ensemble of climate simulations. The statistical model is developed within the extreme value theory framework and it is particularly suited to climate model outputs, which are transient and lie on a regular grid. The large ensemble of climate simulations are considered using the concept of a Bayesian meta-analysis. In particular, the statistical model for the extreme precipitations consists in a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account the non-stationarity, the spatial dependence and the multi-simulation dependence. Projected precipitation return levels for the coming climate over North America are estimated using the proposed statistical model.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC33J1507J
- Keywords:
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- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1622 Earth system modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1637 Regional climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE