Continental scale drought risk assessment: Integrating vulnerability, hazard, and exposure
Abstract
Drought risk refers to the potential losses imposed by a drought event, and it is generally characterized as a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. In this study, drought risk is assessed at a national level across Africa, considering climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Drought vulnerability is quantified using a rigorous multi-dimensional framework based on 28 factors from six different sectors of economy, energy and infrastructure, health, land use, society, and water resources. Various analyses are conducted to assess the reliability and accuracy of the proposed drought vulnerability index (DVI). A multi-model and multi-scenario framework is employed to quantify drought hazard using an ensemble of 10 regional climate models and a multi-scalar drought index. Drought risk is then assessed for 2 climate emission pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), 3 population scenarios, and 3 vulnerability scenarios in each country during 2010-2100. Drought risk ratio is calculated for each scenario, and the role of each component (i.e. hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) in drought risk is identified, and the associated uncertainties are also characterized. Results show that drought risk is expected to increase in future across Africa with varied rates for different models and scenarios. Although northern African countries indicate aggravating drought hazard, drought risk ratio is found to be highest in central African countries as a consequent of unprecedented vulnerability and population rise in the region. Results indicate that controlling the population growth is imperative for mitigating drought risk in Africa (even more effective than climate change mitigation in many countries), as it improves socioeconomic vulnerability and reduces potential exposure to drought.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.023- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.H44D..08A
- Keywords:
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- 1812 Drought;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1817 Extreme events;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1833 Hydroclimatology;
- HYDROLOGY