Assessment of a flood-induced health risk prediction system

Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, endemic disease, and other impacts on lives and livelihoods. Although flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Here, we assess flood-induced health risks by merging vulnerability-hazard-exposure layers, including health system vulnerability, socio-economic, flood hazard (inundation), exposure, and resilience information. Preliminary results are illustrated for Khartoum, Sudan. Such an approach can additionally take advantage of short and long-term flood forecasts to predict potential health risks and provide health early warnings to vulnerable populations. Skillful prediction of flood-induced health risks may positively contribute to practical pre- and post-disaster responses, and could eventually be integrated into multi-hazard early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for areas with little capacity to develop flood-induced health risk warning systems.