Projections of Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves of Alberta using a regional climate model
Abstract
Under the effect of climate change, a warmer climate means that there will be more water vapour in the atmosphere and extreme storms are expected to occur more frequently and with greater severity, resulting in municipal Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves with higher intensities and shorter return periods. A regional climate model, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model, was set up in a one-way, three-domain nested framework to simulate future summer (May to August) precipitation of central Alberta subjected to climate change impact. WRF is forced with climate data of four Global Climate Models, CanESM2, ACCESS1-3, CCSM4, and MIROC5, for the baseline 1980-2005 and 2041-2100 based on the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Due to the bias of WRF's simulations, a quantile-quantile bias correction method and a regional frequency analysis is applied to derive projected grid-based IDF curves for central Alberta. In addition, future trends of air temperature and CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), which affect storm pattern and intensity, are investigated. Future IDF curves show a wide range of increased intensities especially for storms of short durations (≤1-h). Conversely, future IDF curves are expected to shift upward because of increased air temperature and CAPE which are projected to be increased by 2071-2100, respectively. Our results show that climate change could increase the future risk of flooding in central Alberta.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.H33H2159G
- Keywords:
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- 1816 Estimation and forecasting;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1821 Floods;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1847 Modeling;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1860 Streamflow;
- HYDROLOGY